The Leyendecker View: The Chip Shortage Silver Lining«Back


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The Leyendecker View: November 19, 2021


I am grateful for what I am and have.
My thanksgiving is perpetual.
Henry David Thoreau


THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
All inflation is transitory. What matters is if it's still around during an election.
 
Will the Chinese lower prices to ramp up exports and boost their economy as their domestic real estate market slumps? If so, wouldn’t this be disinflationary?
 
A year from now, most of the supply chain kinks and labor and inflation challenges should be worked out. Could we see an economic boom later next year? Think of how many people today are putting off a car purchase or a home improvement project.
 
Loads of governments and companies are drafting zero carbon initiatives with goals for 2040, 2050, and 2060. How in the heck do we have any idea what economy will look like 20 or more years from now? If history is any gauge, many of the companies pledging will be out of business before their carbon neutral goals are even met.
 
When the Fed starts tightening monetary policy, how is that going to affect financial asset values?
 
I’ll bet pets helped offset the emotions and stress of the pandemic for a whole lot of people. Today, pets may be more loved than humans. Hmmm…maybe it’s always been that way.
 
As we replace more and more blue-collar production, maintenance and repair jobs with robots, what are all those workers going to do? We can’t all be app designers, right?
 
The production and consumption of needs is a powerful economic driver. Satisfying needs historically has increased individual productivity, which increased wages, which increased consumption and savings. In contrast, the production and consumption of wants has a much less potent economic influence. Satisfying wants does not increase productivity. Consequently, an economy dominated by the production and consumption of wants is not likely going to grow as much as one dominated by needs.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

October retail sales rise 1.7%
But didn’t inflation rise faster?
 
Leading economic indicator up strong
Growth momentum to continue into 2022.
 
Where inflation is the highest
Which states are being hurt the most?
 
The US needs 80,000 truck drivers
Where will they come from?
 
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
 
Meat prices surge
Tyson raises prices as costs escalate
Thanksgiving dinner is going to cost more
Like we’re not going to have turkey?
 
If we all know inflation is here
Then companies can raise prices and profits.
 
Fed more likely to increase rates soon
As inflation continues to climb.
October inflation biggest in 30 years
 
HUMPTY DUMPTY SUPPLY CHAINS
 
Who is winning with supply chain woes?
Wall Street investors are.
 
Big retailers making acquisitions
To control supply chain.
 
Big retailers say they have plenty of holiday stock
Could they be overstocked?
 
THE LABOR VIEW
 
Health care workers hate their jobs
They are quitting in droves.
So nurse salaries naturally are rising
 
MBA salaries are soaring
Who needs health care workers?
 
Deere workers approve new deal
$10K immediate raise and $8.5K bonus.
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
Ransomware epidemic in the UK
All roads point to Russia.
Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?
 
UK must be ready for war with Russia
So says an outgoing armed forces chief.
 
Belarus weaponizes immigrants
Belarus threatens to turn off the gas
The EU’s big Eastern problem
 
Germany postpones Nord Stream 2
Yet Russia knows they need the gas.
 
GLOBAL
 
Don’t believe the deglobalization narrative
Like it’s supposed to happen overnight?
 
EU has its own Belt and Road plan
Seeking to compete with China.
 
Russia blows up a satellite
Threatening the space station.
Space debris poses growing risk
 
THE NEW INVESTMENT MEME
 
Frequent questions about NFTs
You too can pay $500K for a “rock”
Coinbase NFT is coming
The metaverse must already be here.
NFTs may be eating themselves
 
The 10,000 faces
That launched the NFT revolution.
 
How NFTs create value
According to the Harvard Business Review.
 
THE CRYPTO MEME
 
Who created Bitcoin?
We may find out soon. It’s the $64B question.
 
The crypto capital of the world
Ukraine steps up.
 
$76B a day
The world’s biggest crypto exchange.
 
CORONANEWS
 
Mandatory vaccinations in Austria
That means everybody!
Virus out of control in Germany
 
Europe in the Covid crosshairs again
Colder weather and low vaccination coverage driving cases.
Netherlands and Sweden clamping down.
 
Pfizer shot considered the best
Money, money, money.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Ford and GM getting into chip making
They need more supply control.
 
The chip shortage silver lining
A US manufacturing renaissance may be coming.
 
Amazon to face Black Friday strikes
Protests over wages and lack of paying taxes.
 
Ohio sues Meta…er…Facebook
The beginning of the end for social media?
More states are piling on
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Social media is attention alcohol
Fun, addicting, and then…
 
Sex is no longer that important
‘Cause we have social media?
 
Overdose deaths have exploded
Check out the graph
Pandemic, isolation, bad parenting, social media?
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
China and India blindside Cop26
They’re not giving up coal anytime soon.
 
South Africa can’t quit coal
Unless we pay them to do so.
 
The Achilles heel of electric vehicles
What do we do with used batteries?
GM’s Volt battery headache
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
Is China starting a nuclear arms race?
With recent hypersonic missile tests
It’s constructing 300 new missile silos
 
China fires water cannons at Philippine boats
Beijing says ships are not allowed in the area.
 
Xi wants to work with the US
So he says, so he says, so he says.
He also warns of US cold war
 
CANARY IN THE COAL MINE?
 
Evergrande likely headed to a default
So suggests bond rating agency.
 
Chinese property debt higher than thought
Housing prices fall most in 6 years
Tricky times for China’s communist party.
Even the Fed is concerned
 
Xi says GDP growth doesn’t matter
Maybe not to China, but…
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
How to take criticism
So it helps rather than hurts.
 
Want to sound more confident?
Avoid these 11 words and phrases.
 
Are you an intimidating manager?
Perhaps more than you think.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
How should your toilet paper roll?
Over or under?
 
What is goodness made of?
What does it take to be a morally good person?
 
Animals in one million years
What biologists project.
 
THE FINAL FRONTIER
 
11 scary facts about space
You’ll appreciate earth more.
 
Space debris is about to explode
What are we going to do about it?
 
Why can’t people teleport?
The physics of teleportation.
 
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
The ultimate ski run
Insane fun!
 
Introducing the Icelandverse
Having a small population must be nice.
 
Robert Plant and Allison Krauss
Have a new album out.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
Are you ready for a turkey Thanksgiving?
                                   
No fuss Thanksgiving turkey
Turkey gravy from scratch
Buttery herb stuffing
Southern cornbread dressing
Shaved brussels sprout salad
The best mashed potatoes
Classic scalloped potatoes
Classic sweet potatoes
Can’t miss green bean casserole
Simple delish roasted carrots
Orange cranberry sauce
Old school dinner rolls
Don’t forget those Thanksgiving cocktails
The best pies and desserts
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: How America Failed Workers
November 12, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: The Great Monetary Unwinding
November 5, 2021
 
 

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