The Leyendecker View: The Great Monetary Unwinding«Back


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The Leyendecker View: November 5, 2021


Ideas are cheap. Execution is expensive.
The ability to execute separates people,
not the ability to come up with ideas.
Shane Parrish


THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Employment reports 500K+ new jobs
Are we back to building economic momentum?
 
The great monetary unwinding arrives
And the stock market hits another record.
But no groundwork is set for higher rates

Personal income is falling
As pandemic assistance programs retreat.
 
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
 
Fertilizer crisis threatens food supply
Part of the global energy squeeze.
 
The soaring cost of home insurance
When have insurance costs ever gone down?
 
Baltic dry index at five-month low
Maybe inflation is starting to ease.
 
HUMPTY DUMPTY SUPPLY CHAINS
 
Covid cases are dropping in SE Asia
Will this help our supply chain woes?
 
The chokepoint economy
Too interconnected means too interdependent.
 
Supply chain a big topic on earnings calls
Will earnings projections need to be lowered?
Starbucks revenue falls short
 
THE C-SUITE
 
Pandemic rewrites CEO playbook
More focus on re-shoring?
 
How to run better meetings
Pretend you’re on a jury.
 
Perspectives on productivity and sustainability
From McKinsey.
 
THE LABOR VIEW
 
The Great Resignation
It’s all about how people think of work.
Here’s what makes workers stick around
 
Deere gives labor a last offer
Take it or leave, they say.
While Starbucks and Costco raise wages
Overall wages jump most in 20 years

 
Why working from home will stick
From the National Bureau of Economic Research.
And it’s going to change the suburbs
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
Inflation or economic malaise?
The BofE doesn’t have great options.
So it keeps interest rates on hold
But hints rates may be rising soon

 
The rising cost of climate action
May be spooking European voters.
 
Eurozone inflation surges to 4.1%
With 2.2% economic growth.
 
GLOBAL
 
What to know about new Japanese PM
He’s a status-quo, behind-the-scenes guy.
 
Covid’s effect on global sentiment
From McKinsey’s point of view.
 
Car shortages threaten global economy
Japan auto output falls almost 50%
Yet Toyota’s profit booms

New cars are a big economic influence.
 
THE FINANCE WORLD
 
Morgan Stanley dominates sales and trading
Top equity dog on Wall Street.
 
Wells Fargo issues warning
It likely faces more regulatory setbacks.
 
Are women better investors than men?
Should wives be managing the money?
 
Smaller asset managers
Struggling, but hanging in.
 
THE CRYPTO MEME
 
VCs think crypto will reshape commerce
As banks slowly embrace it

I guess national currencies won’t matter.
 
Crypto lending is taking off
Can regulators slow it down?
 
Is crypto a commodity or a currency?
The CFTC thinks it’s a commodity.
 
CORONANEWS
 
Pfizer gets $65B sales boost
Thank you, Covid!!!              
 
First pill to treat Covid is approved
The UK is leading the way.
 
Lab leak evidence mounts
NIH reinforces lab-leak theory.
 
How will Covid end?
Watch the UK.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Neuromarketing
The booming business of controlling your mind.
 
Netflix sets its sights on gaming
Here comes their global gaming rollout.
 
Chipmaker says Metaverse will be real
‘Cause it increases chip demand?
While Nike prepares to sell virtual sneakers
And Microsoft introduces 3D avatars for meetings

 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Americans’ biggest fears
Our top fear kind of says it all.
 
On the verge of chatting with whales
Will we soon communicate with more animals?
 
Where are all the workers?
Many started their own businesses.
 
And millions of Baby Boomers retired early
Thank goodness for the booming stock market.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
IEA warns the end is nigh
If we don’t get off coal soon.
 
Wildfires have NOT been increasing
They’ve been declining since 1900.
Weather related deaths have also declined measurably
 
Developing nations seek $1.3T a year for climate
Even China wants us to subsidize it.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
China plans big nuclear arms expansion
So says the Pentagon.
 
India tests missile
A warning to China after talks break down.
 
EU seeks closer ties with Taiwan
As they send first delegation to Taiwan
US training Taiwan elite troops

China surely not happy.
So they hold live-fire drills in East China
 
CANARY IN THE COAL MINE?
 
China’s economy faces new challenges
Falling factory activity not a good sign
Two-thirds of developers in debt trouble

As China’s economy goes, so goes the world???
 
China says citizens should stockpile food
And stop eating and wasting so much food
And stop vegetable hoarding

Food security seems extra important to Communist Party right now...
 
Yahoo exits China
Are more Western companies going to leave?
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
           
How career hot streaks happen
They’re not by accident.
 
How to be happy
Yes, it’s possible.
 
How to maintain a healthy brain
Tweak your lifestyle for better thinking.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
The best national parks in fall
For the best leaf peeping.
 
Best and worst drivers by state
Why is Iowa the worst driving state?
 
Space junk visualization
What are we doing to our planet?
 
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
Crazy dangerous Japanese festival
Holy moly!
 
The last honey hunter
In search of hallucinogenic honey.
 
Ready for the next Ghostbusters?
With Paul Rudd at the wheel.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
20 great broth-based soup recipes
Winter is coming.
 
Japan created the modern American bourbon market
How did this happen?
 
7 small town hidden food gems
Time for a foodie pilgrimage.
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
Is a dramatic change in China’s economy on its way? What will happen to the global economy if China goes into a lost economic decade, or longer?
 
For some reason, climate change hysteria is starting to remind me of Y2K hysteria. At least Y2K had an expiration date.
 
Developing economies around the world, including India and China, want trillions of dollars a year to fight climate change. Where are Europe and the US going to get this money?
 
With the expanded pandemic Washington safety net behind us, will we see labor shortages reverse?
 
Labor will remain under attack from technology as companies seek to produce more output with less and less labor input. Rising wages will only cause companies to invest more in robots and smarter information management systems.
 
Did you know that ONLY 37.7% of infants and toddlers are cared for exclusively by a parent?
 
Childcare is a business issue, not a family issue according to the Harvard Business Review. Hmmm…
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Bond Market Sales Inflation Will Last
October 29, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: What’s Really Going on in China
October 22, 2021
 
 

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