The Leyendecker View: Bond Market Sales Inflation Will Last«Back


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The Leyendecker View: October 29, 2021


America is thirsty to reward grace and virtue.
Robert Woodson


THE ECONOMIC VIEW

US economy slowed to 2% growth in Q3
Expectations were 2.8%...Delta, Delta, Delta.
 
Holiday sales projected to break record
So suggests the National Retail Federation.

US economic momentum grows in October
According to IHS Markit data.
 
US consumer confidence rises
As Delta subsides

 
GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS
 
US urges Russia to send gas to Europe
ASAP!!!
Putin orders more gas for Europe
 
EU not in agreement on electricity reforms
Nine countries reject Franco-Spanish proposal.
 
Russia threatens Europe’s poorest country
No gas unless you do what we want.
 
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
 
The monetary bathtub is overflowing
Do we have two to three more years of inflation?
 
The bond market says inflation will last
Should we all be listening?
 
McDonald’s raises menu prices
As their worker wages climb.
 
Consumers are paying the higher prices
Consumer product companies see no dip in sales.
 
HUMPTY DUMPTY SUPPLY CHAINS
 
Supply chain problems will be solved in 6 to 12 months
Wells Fargo CEO’s bold prediction.
 
China has a magnesium shortage
Another threat to the global auto industry.
 
Has trucking regulation jammed California’s ports?
70,000 owner-operator truckers are at risk.
 
THE LABOR VIEW
 
The inflation tax
Real wages have declined since Biden’s inauguration.
 
Robots taking over vineyards
Also happening in warehouses
Here comes the fully robotic drilling rig
Robot trains” to improve transportation

Robots, coming to an industry near you.
 
40-hour work week is fact of life
Says NY Times. Really?
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
EU fines Poland over $1MM a day
Until they dismantle some judicial reforms.
 
Eurozone economy stumbling
Shortages of goods, inflation and all.
While UK consumer and industry confidence falls
 
NATO agrees to master Russian strategy
Covering the “what ifs,” including cyber.
While Germany leads new EU defense group
 
GLOBAL
 
China tells property developers to get their act together
More than half have junk-rated debt

Is a real estate meltdown coming?
 
Russia and China hold joint maneuvers
In Japan’s northern chokepoint.
And fly helicopters near Japanese island
 
US-South Korea working on end-of-war declaration
Why do we pander to North Korea?
 
THE FINANCE WORLD
 
Big banks see a profit boost
By way of the release of loss reserves.
 
The Shiller PE ratio
Check out the historical graph.
 
SPACs by the numbers
They represent over 60% of 2021 IPOs.
 
The IPO market is about to change
Fidelity and Goldman want to digitize it.
 
THE CRYPTO MEME
 
Now about that Tether thing
Could it bring down crypto?
 
Investors sell gold to buy crypto
Well, whad’ya know.
 
How to invest in Bitcoin
Without buying Bitcoin.
 
CORONANEWS
 
NIH cops to funding Wuhan research
But claims Wuhan violated terms of grant.
 
Covid will be an era, not just a crisis
Likely to be with us for some time.
 
WHO global Covax program falters
As rich countries buy up vaccines.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Dystopia is already here
How should we handle it?
 
The amazing things you’ll do in the metaverse
You will no longer need reality.
 
FBI leads major ransomware attack
Using ransomware tactics.
While hackers cry harassment
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Average age of US cars is over 12 years
How many people can really afford EVs?
 
US to let foreign travelers in
You mean beyond those coming through our southern border?
 
Here comes 3-D printed subdivisions
An Austin company leads the effort.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
Greenhouse emissions reach record
Is this well-timed hysteria news?
 
Hertz orders 100,000 Teslas
Great marketing strategy for Tesla.
Great tax break for Hertz, thanks taxpayers!
 
Australia sets net-zero goal
But sees a future for fossil fuels.
 
California has driest year since 1924
Did they have a climate change problem back then?
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
How China controls thought and speech
Even beyond its borders.
 
US deploys B-1 bombers to Indian Ocean
For the first time in 15 years.
 
US has troops in Taiwan
For training, of course.
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
A psychologically rich life is a good life
It’s different from just plain ole happiness.
 
How to ask useful questions
That get you better answers.
 
The risks you cannot see
What to do when there’s no playbook.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
The most haunted places in America
How about a night or two of vacation?
 
Thoreau’s economics
The truly precious costs precious little.
 
Where to go stargazing
Fall is a great time to check out the stars.
 
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
The 9 most terrifying words in the English language
Ronald Reagan wisdom.
 
Orbital Reef
Jeff Bezos proposed a space park.
 
Amazon’s fulfillment center tour
Watch how they work.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER'S KITCHEN
           
The home bar is legend in Austin
Here’s how to build your own
 
Fall dinner party menu ideas
That’ll wow your guests.
 
The best chicken soup recipe ever
I’ll bet not everyone will think so.
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
It bears repeating: The larger and more complex any system gets, the more systemic risk builds. Large, complex systems may be highly productive, but they are also inherently fragile. We are living in the largest and most complex globalized system humans have ever experienced, and it is suffused with risk. Know what else lives in such systems? Black Swans.
 
There are almost 8 billion people on earth. Those in European and US governments—who represent just over 1 billion people—are totally convinced climate change is going to destroy the world. What do the other 7 billion people think? Hmmm…
 
Some of those in countries less concerned with climate change are likely more than happy to let European and US climate policy drive up domestic transportation and electricity costs. This makes Europe and the US less competitive as a result.
 
China announced their intention for net-zero carbon emission by 2060. Who in the world can predict what things will look like 40 years from now? Check out which countries have committed to net zero and how many have not.
 
The UN’s World Meteorological Association claims we are “way off track” in combating climate change. Maybe we just need to stop all economic activity immediately.
 
Why do end-of-the-world narratives like climate change dominate the news? Because sensationalism grabs minds, and the more minds news can grab, the more advertising they can sell.
 
Throughout history, humans have adapted to numerous dramatic changes. Why would we not do the same in a warming climate, if such even happens?
 
In a couple of years, will EV makers have an “OH MY” moment like those in renewables markets are going to have this winter? Has anyone calculated what the price of natural gas and electricity will be when “everyone” is driving an EV? And what about all the digging in earth that’s required to extract the copper, magnesium and rare earth minerals needed for EV batteries?
 
There is no simple life today. It’s become highly complex, confusing, and insecure.
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: What’s Really Going on in China
October 22, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: Elon Musk Has the Best Rocket
October 15, 2021
 
 

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