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The Leyendecker View: October 1, 2021


You are the breeze in desert for me. My water. And ocean. Meant to be only together tiger.
- Tweet from Elizabeth Holmes to boyfriend Sunny Balwani read at Thernos trial
His response: Ok


THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Consumer confidence at 6-month low
 
As weekly jobless claims rise
Are we close to the bottom of Delta?
 
Housing affordability is a problem
As US prices reach records
Dream homes out of reach for many.
Yet here comes the end of mortgage abatement
 
China has 90 million empty apartments
Whoa, buddy!
Tells bankers to help prop up real estate
 
China has an electricity shortage
May even be getting worse
Their thermal coal reserves are at record low
Manufacturing sector getting squeezed
Will we have less stuff for Christmas?
Goldman cuts China GDP growth
 
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN 
 
The bond market is saying something
Maybe inflation isn’t transitory.
 
Apartment rents up 10%+
This will hit official inflation numbers soon.
Some rents up 70% in NYC
 
BMW increases profit guidance
Forget chip shortage, it’s raising prices.
 
HUMPTY DUMPTY SUPPLY CHAINS
 
Nike has a supply chain problem
80% of their Vietnam factories are closed.
 
Costco is back to toilet paper rationing
Not enough trucks, drivers, and shipping containers.
 
That one darn unavailable part
Can unleash industrial hell.
 
THE LABOR VIEW
 
Constrained labor markets
Are hitting company earnings.
 
25,000 employees sue Disneyland
They want better pay.
 
Manufacturing labor shortage a problem
Fast food can’t find enough workers
Not enough truck drivers, either
Schools need more workers, too
Even retail is struggling
 
The frustration with productivity culture
People are tired of constantly optimizing.
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
Sorting out new German government
Could take a while.
 
France not happy with UK
It’s a fishing problem.
 
UK to return to pounds and ounces
Giving up on the EU metric system.
 
GLOBAL
 
Russia and Mexico sign space accord
Mexico is in the space race?
 
Meet Japan’s next prime minister
Fumio Kishida wins LDP leadership vote.
 
How much countries spend on education
Big surprise on how little Japan spends.
 
THE FINANCE WORLD
 
What asset class is safe from inflation?
NY Life CEO gives her opinion.
 
Is the stock market rigged?
New research suggests it may be.
 
University endowments mint billions
How about reducing tuition fees?
 
Put these charts on your wall
Putting some perspective on today’s world.
 
THE CRYPTO MEME
 
A hamster is beating human investors
At crypto-trading.
 
Crypto exchange pays $24MM transaction fees
On a $100,000 deposit.
 
Crypto incentivizes hardware churn
Just more carbon down the drain.
 
CORONANEWS
 
New US Covid cases fall 25% in last two weeks
Soon to be an endemic
Is there light at the end of this tunnel?
While in Australia, cases are surging
 
Want to be exempt from the vaccine?
Then become a vegan.
 
Pfizer CEO says normal life returns soon
But you’ll need an annual $hot.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Amazon introduces first home robot
It will track everything you do
The beginning of our iRobot future?
 
Sand sized flying microchips are here
To be used for population surveillance???
 
Machines run the show
At Amazon’s flagship warehouse.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
NASA is shaking up its bureaucracy
You think private space sector had any influence?
 
Ixnay on the OVIDCAY
Brand marketers ready to forget virus talk.
 
Going back to 2019 is not progress
We need to learn to get better.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
Europe asks Russia for more coal
Really? More coal? Really?
 
The unstoppable electric car
A turning point for auto dealers.
 
Climate change tech
May be the new dot.com bubble.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
China is turning inward
Suggest European business groups.
 
China’s new strategy to fight IP claims theft
How can these folks be trusted?
 
DFC launches international vaccine drive
Created in 2018 to counter China’s New Silk Road.
Learn more about the DFC
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
The Munger Operating System
Charlie Munger is a treasure.
 
Collaboration overload
Is sinking productivity.
 
Don’t waste your life
With endless to-do lists.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
Where did tattoos come from?
Hint, it named a country.
 
Badass Glen Dawson
Pioneer climber wore tennis shoes.
 
Badass Betty Reid Soskin
Is a 100-year-old park ranger.
 
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
Record 66-yard field goal
In case you didn’t see it.
 
The biggest tree
Tree height comparison.        
 
Al Franken is going on tour
Surely gonna roast Republicans.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
Ratatouille’s ratatouille
Just like Remy made in the movie.
 
A curry base for your freezer
Dinner is always almost ready.
 
Champagne and fast food
The perfect pairing. Mmmm good!
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
What could go wrong with the current case for permanently high oil and gas prices? How about a Chinese recession? China’s economy represents over 18% of global GDP. If it falls, what’s the waterfall going to do to economies that feed into it?
 
Has anyone noticed that it was the US private sector and not socialized medicine countries that came to the rescue with Covid vaccines in record time?
 
Given all the supply chain bottlenecks, what are the odds that earnings projections for many companies are too optimistic?
 
What is a country without its own currency? If currency is not managed by a country, how can a country manage itself? Consequently, how do crypto currencies survive? Of what value are they to day-to-day human activity?
 
What’s fair about billionaires increasing their wealth by 50% over the pandemic while millions of people lose their jobs, thousands of businesses close and millions of more people still feel unsure and insecure? What does the average person think about this?
 
If we’re going to raise taxes, can we use them to help pay our existing budget deficits rather than growing new, bigger ones?
 
Do we have a minimum wage problem, or do we have a problem not creating enough jobs that pay more than the minimum wage? Which of these two “problems” should we be focused on?
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Covid About to Decline
September 24, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: Is the Pandemic About to End?
September 17, 2021
 
 

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