The Leyendecker View: Covid About to Decline«Back


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The Leyendecker View: September 24, 2021


Compete with yourself, and root for everybody else.
Candice Millard


THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Household wealth rises sharply
Along with household debt.
 
Homeowner’s equity keeps rising
Let’s hope it doesn’t stop.
 
New England, California energy costs to soar
Not going to be a happy winter for many folks.
 
Global debt is soaring
Does this portend lower overall economic growth?
 
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
 
Investors have spotted greenflation
Which is driving up the price of commodities.
 
The price of Cheerios is going up
General Mills sees continued inflation.
 
Apartment rents are soaring
Up 10% in August.
 
Iron ore prices tumble 20%
Worst week since 2008 financial crisis.
 
HUMPTY DUMPTY SUPPLY CHAINS
 
Chip shortage highly costly to auto makers
To the tune of $200B+ in lost sales.
 
The port logjam is huge
Are my fridge repair parts stuck at sea?
 
The realities of supply chain hell
Hard to do everything right these days.
 
Asia Covid lockdowns
Deepen supply chain pain.
Nike won’t have enough holiday product
 
THE LABOR VIEW
 
67% of 2021 grads took pay cut
Check out this survey of recent grads.
 
Here come more robots
Can’t find workers, then buy robots.
 
Why everybody is hiring
But nobody’s getting hired.
 
Get your resume past the robot
Maybe this is where the problem lies.
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
UK wants to join “new NAFTA”
As a quick way to improve trade.
 
German voters have green fatigue
Climate is not a top priority for them.
Merkel leaves with trouble under the hood
German millionaires going to Switzerland
 
Europe’s coming energy crisis
Was years in the making.
EU prepares “toolbox” of measures
Governments to dole out billions
UK considering support of utilities and fertilizer
UK now has a fuel problem
 
GLOBAL
 
How high will global population rise?
Researchers can’t agree.
 
Uneven global vaccinations threaten economy
We just have to live with Covid.
 
China imposes more steel curbs        
It wants clear skies for 2021 Olympics
 
THE FINANCE WORLD
 
The life insurance industry is changing
Traditional providers seem to want out. Why?
 
Foreign investors propping up Treasurys
The prettiest dog in the ugly dog contest.
 
Real estate investment trusts
Were a hot asset class, but now?
 
Junk debt sales toward record year
Normally a signal of problems ahead.
 
THE CRYPTO MEME
 
Problems in El Salvador
Bitcoin is not working.
 
Chinese central bank says absolutely NO
ALL crypto activities are now illegal
 
SEC wins out over Coinbase
Forced to drop their lending product plans.
 
CORONANEWS
 
Is the worst over?
Researchers say Covid about to decline.
Covid to be like a cold by next spring
 
Delta decimating rural America
A friend lost mother, sister and husband recently.
 
What will the virus do next?
More mutations? We don’t yet know.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Troll farms that capture minds
One more problem with Facebook.
Facebook debates WSJ’s investigation
Zuckerberg’s plan to push Facebook propaganda
And make it harder for watchdogs to monitor
 
The EU wants to simplify chargers
In order to reduce e-waste.
 
Apple caves under Russian pressure
Shuts down a voting app.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Mothers choosing to stay at home
Less interest in going back to work.
 
Average person has 100 passwords
This needs to get simpler.
 
“Pleasanteesim” is eroding resilience
People are starting to lose their minds.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
EVs lead to lower fuel tax collections
How we gonna pay for roads and bridges?
 
Sea otters can fight climate change
They help grow a powerful carbon sink.
 
Green steel becomes a hot commodity
Auto makers trying to reduce carbon footprint.
 
California has a battery problem
What happens when batteries stop working?
California needs more hydrocarbon energy
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
Major China growth engine sputtering
Could they be in for a Lost Decade?
Beyond Evergrande, their economy is slowing
Be prepared for a “possible storm”
Foreign companies feeling a chilly atmosphere
 
China’s rising power of the seas
And what are their ambitions?
 
The EU announces its Indo-Pacific plan
After Australia-UK-US deal.
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
Laugh more, lead better
It’s no joke.
 
How much exercise do you really need?
7,000 to 8,000 daily steps will do it.
 
How to make smart decisions
Without getting lucky.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
WFH jammies
Hybrid work clothes for a hybrid work world.
 
2021 drone photo awards
Some awesome images!
 
Fat Bear Week
For those tired of following pro sports.
 
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
15 unfinished buildings being demolished
Watch what China is starting to do.
 
BB King and a couple friends
I’m missing this kind of stuff.
 
I am AI (short video)
Researchers have cracked AI speech.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
The best way to cook salmon
Which way do you cook it?
 
McDonald’s ice cream machines got hacked
What’s next, espionage chips in our cereal?
 
Subscription tacos
Taco Bell is a tech company now.
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
Something tells me a couple decades from now we'll look back on this period of time and think Well, of course that's what happened.  If only we had the foresight to be able to see today what will seem obvious tomorrow.
 
A few decades ago, the Japanese were going to own the world. More recently, the Chinese were going to own the world. A few decades from now, who will we think is going to own the world?
 
Household wealth and household debt have risen sharply, but the wealth growth is from financial assets that could fall in value. The debt, we’re stuck with no matter what happens.
 
History tells us the Federal Reserve makes mistakes. Are they about to prick our stock market and real estate bubbles? On purpose, or by accident?
 
A very bright economist I read suggests China’s real estate development sector represents 6% of global GDP. Ponder that one.
 
Clamping down on many industries at the same time a real estate crisis hits does not bode well for China’s economic future. If China “catches an economic cold,” will that mean the world could catch the economic flu? And what if China is about to experience a Japanese-like Lost Decades? (Notice that’s decades, as in plural.)
 
Is the recent US-UK contract to help construct nuclear submarines for Australia pointing us toward a “new NATO,” the Five Eyes.
 
The more government borrows and prints, the higher home prices seem to get. Check out the charts.
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Is the Pandemic About to End?
September 17, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: The PE Secret to Success
September 10, 2021
 
 

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