The Leyendecker View: Banking Could Go Away«Back


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The Leyendecker View: September 3, 2021


Every decade or so, dark clouds fill the economic skies, and they briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying wash tubs, not teaspoons.
Warren Buffet


THE ECONOMIC VIEW

August consumer confidence falls
Delta has folks feeling insecure again.
Latest jobs report way missed the mark
 
Household debt hits new high
Driven by mortgages.

Business travel is doomed
84% of companies will cut travel budgets.
 
TSA screenings lowest since May
Vacation season is over.
Disney Park Indicator continues to lag
 
THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN
 
Inflation is cooling off
Just as economists and the Fed expected.
 
Surging Covid hammers Asian factories
PC shipments are delayed by months
Will scarcity of product increase inflation?
 
Scorching summer hurts agriculture
Pushing up global grain prices.
 
What’s driving up rent prices?
Prices jumped 11% in first half of 2021.
 
SUPPLY CHAIN REBOOT
 
The world is short of everything
Get used to it.
 
Supply chain issues here to stay
There’s no putting Humpty Dumpty back together.
 
Ford sales decline 33%
Chip shortage leads to vehicle shortage.
 
Supply bottlenecks feeding higher prices
Record backlogs at eurozone manufacturers.
Lots of unfinished vehicles waiting for components
 
THE LABOR VIEW
 
WFH and the urban job outlook
Old normal return or new normal coming?
 
Supply of Oreos and Ritz crackers at risk
As laborers strike in search of a better deal.
 
McKinsey’s view of future work
Want to be a garbage designer?
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
Biden and Europe are going different ways
So much for the US’s return to global leader.
 
70% in Europe are fully vaccinated
They need our tourist dollars!
 
Eurozone recovery seems on track
Despite Covid resurgence.
While inflation hits a 10-year high
 
GLOBAL
 
Russia strong-arming tech companies
They want to control the political narrative.
 
The world at war in 2021
Countries currently in armed conflict.
 
India’s economy is healing
20.1% GDP growth coming out of lockdown.
 
THE FINANCE WORLD
 
Banking could go away
As tech giants eye the market.
 
SPACs are taking big hits
The carnage continues.
 
The online influencer investor
The new “it girl” in venture capital.
 
Turning $250K into $400MM
Whoa, buddy!
 
THE CRYPTO MEME
 
Crypto is worthless
Suggests legendary investor John Paulson.
 
Crypto needs to be regulated
In order to be sustainable.
 
A crypto crash course
In case you’re curious.
 
CORONANEWS
 
A DNA Covid vaccine is here
And more are coming.
 
Hospital admissions fall
For the first time since June.
 
WHO adds Mu to watchlist
New variant originated in Columbia.
 
South Africa also has a new variant
“This pandemic is far from over.”
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Grocery stores should worry
As Amazon invades their industry.
 
When does AI become “high risk”?
Will it be too late by the time we figure it out?
 
Say goodbye to your wallet
iPhones will soon carry drivers’ licenses, too.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Want to get REALLY LIVID?
Hospitals and insurers are hiding prices.
 
Online learning is here to stay
Suggests CEO of textbook publisher.
 
Americans struggling with mental health
The pandemic is driving us crazy!
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
Origin Materials
Wants to eliminate fossil fuel-based materials.
 
Chinese coal is making our solar panels
You mean solar can’t make solar?
 
US battery storage grew big time in 2020
With even more growth to come.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
China economic slump continues
Early August data shows further slowing.
Large residential developer nearing default
 
China bad-debt manager loses $16B
Well…it is managing bad debt, right?
 
China limits kids’ online video gaming
To three hours a week.
Because gaming is “opium for the mind”
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
Want to improve your well-being?
Take a break from technology.
 
Want to think better?
Then walk, walk, walk, walk…
 
Virtual reality helps cure PTSD
Is it ready for prime time to treat civilian trauma?
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
4 last-minute Labor Day road trips
If you didn’t get enough vacation this summer.
 
6,000 years before Stonehenge
Someone built Gobekli Tepe.
 
Why do airplanes stay in the air?
It’s still a mystery to many.
 
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
I Still Have Faith In You
OMG! ABBA is back!!!
 
The Elizabeth Holmes trial begins.
Check out the documentary trailer
 
Converting a soccer stadium into a concert venue
Wow!
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
The best brewery in every state
Can Europe match our brewnovation?
 
How to throw a weeknight dinner party
That works for weekends, too.
 
Easy sautéed zucchini with parmesan
Easy pan fried zucchini
Zucchini carpaccio
Zucchini fritters
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
Is there anything in the world more delicious than a good cheeseburger?
 
What are the odds that headlines are going to start transitioning from the “I word,” inflation, to the “R word,” recession?
 
Why once again did all the economic and Wall Street “experts” terribly miss the recent employment report data? And why do they keep lowering their GDP forecasts? Maybe we have too many people and too many models trying to find the right answer. Maybe all these folks are living in muddied water. Maybe they can’t see the forest for the trees.
 
Even more inflation may be coming but not from massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. Instead, it looks to be coming from policies to combat climate change. Those policies will drive up natural resources, transportation, and power costs. These costs trickle down into virtually every product and service we consume.
 
“Greenflation” will challenge middle- and lower-income earners as technology and globalization continues to hold down their wages. The only solution seems to be a wealth transfer. So one way or another, higher taxes for the wealthy, or maybe for everyone, are coming. Yet as reported last week, 61% of Americans do not pay federal income taxes.
 
Are masks going to become a permanent fixture globally? If so, is this the price we pay to have cheap stuff to buy all the time?
 
I maintain my prediction from over a year ago: We won’t know where we really stand with the pandemic until the spring of 2022. Both national and global herd immunity have to be in sight before we can return to a next normal. Hopefully no new debilitating variants show up.
 
Each of us spends our time on three things: productive activity, life maintenance and leisure. It is the income generation of productive activity that affords our life maintenance and leisure. Can we apply this perspective to our economy at large?
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Why Bitcoin is Doomed
August 27, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: Fed Chairman Is Deep Into Stocks
August 20, 2021
 
 

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