The Leyendecker View: Google Takes on Colleges«Back


Interested in receiving our newslettersClick here to sign up.

 
The Leyendecker View: March 12, 2021


We estimate 25 percent of colleges could go out of business in the next few years.
Dan Rosensweig

 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Mortgage applications drop
Refinancing demand falls, too
Refinancing recently hit peak
Housing, a big economic engine, may be stalling.
 
US set to power global economy
Cause we’re stimulating more than even China.
 
Where the stimulus is going
Check the infographic.
 
US trade deficit rises 1.9%
Addicted to imports, for sure.
 
THE LABOR VIEW
 
First time unemployment claims fall
But 9.6MM jobs still lost to the pandemic.
 
Companies have been holding off layoffs
Including lots of underperforming workers.
 
Yellen cheerleader for stimulus bill
Expects “full employment” by end of 2022.
While Fed thinks giant job gains not enough
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
ECB to crank up money-printing
‘Cause their economy depends on it.
 
Europe offshore wind hits record
Not enough to turn economy around.
 
EU wants more chip-making in Europe
As US and China seek growth, too.
 
France conducts military exercise in space
Star Wars by the end of this century?
 
THE GLOBE
 
China “planning” to increase birth rates
National social security fund already in deficit.
 
Australia to subsidize tourist travel
They’ll pay 50% of your plane fare.

Mexico approves big marijuana bill
Here comes Mexican weed!
 
Chaos rips thru global shipping industry
From just in time to fits and starts.
Freight rates from China explode
 
THE FINANCE WORLD
 
Latest on the SPAC bubble
It’s getting silly.
 
Bitcoin really bad for the environment
Mining is a massive carbon footprint.
 
Stock market frenzy emboldens trading tax
Finding new taxes is fun for government.
 
CORONANEWS
 
Pandemic at a crossroads
Seven-day moving average rising again.
 
Been vaccinated?
Here’s what you now need to know.
 
CDC says 78% of hospitalizations were fat
Overweight and obese dominate worst cases.
 
Vaccine passports
The next debate.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Biden going after big tech?
With staunch antitrust advocate advisor.
 
Apple joins the privacy culprits
France Digitale files complaint.
 
Facebook goes on offense
Seeking antitrust suit dismissal.
 
Cyberwars heating up as Microsoft hacked
And it’s getting worse by the day
Cyber security challenge is with us forever.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
Global CO2 emissions rebound
After economies rebound. Uh…duh.
 
Clean energy jobs
Don’t pay same as oil and gas jobs. Uh…duh.
 
Each country’s share of CO2 emissions
Good luck getting global emissions to fall measurably.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
US brass worried about Taiwan invasion
Guam also a target, suggests Admiral Davidson.
 
US to build anti-missile network
Along first island chain.
 
Quad tightens rare-earth cooperation
To counter China.
 
Hong Kong no longer a democracy
Only China approved can run for office.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Google to take on colleges
Do colleges stand a chance?
 
The COVID baby bust
Will birth rates rebound?
Bust could reverberate for decades
 
Antitrust interest grows
Laws likely in for a big makeover.
 
Pandemic changed our behavior
The lessons learned.
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
Your thinking rate is fixed
Try thinking better, not faster.
 
The joys of lifelong learning
Keep that mind working on hard stuff.
 
Think twice about salary negotiations
A little more money today may cost you later.
                              
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
Northern Lights photographs of the year
Amazing images…not seen in cities.
 
Wisdom hatches yet another chick
70-year-old albatross, all albatrosses are amazing.
 
The great copper heist
Trader receives $36MM in painted rocks.
 
MINDCATION VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
Nazare 2020: The Beast Awakens
Surfing the largest waves in the world. Whoa!
 
Top 10 eCars for 2021
Feels like an eCar bubble is coming.
 
Aptera eCar has launched
Can charge with solar collection body.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
For your St Patrick’s Day weekend…
 
Guinness beef stew
 
Fried Irish cabbage with bacon
 
Irish soda bread
 
Stout chocolate cake
 
Channel your inner Paddy!
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
The expanding antitrust focus on technology may shift more capital back to traditional energy. And as more no-earnings technology and renewable companies flounder, the financial discipline shoved down energy’s throat the last few years may make it even more interesting to institutional investors. Maybe the recent bump in energy stocks is only just the beginning of a longer energy bull market.
 
The big and important question—for how long will the $1.9T tsunami stimulus carry our economy? Will it be a few months, a few quarters, a few years? A few months seems most likely. Everyone spends their “bonus” pretty quickly.
 
And what if consumers don’t spend willy nilly over the next couple of quarters?
 
Not sure how we’re supposed to feel when our economy seems totally dependent on the amount of new capital governments around the world inject into the system.
 
It’s uncomfortable knowing that no matter how “good” our cyber security systems get, the “bad guys” keep penetrating them. Is this a fear we have to live with for eternity?
 
It does not appear that Joe Biden’s administration is set to embrace bipartisan legislation until Republican politicians switch parties.
 
A good friend likes to say that stocks go up on anticipation and down on realization. Well, seems we’re about to enter a realization period. But with billions of dollars in stimulus checks set to land in citizens’ bank accounts, maybe we’ll just watch the bubble get bigger.
 
After comparing the decline in church goers to the rise in antidepressant use and teenage depression last week, how about comparing it to the rise in debt to GDP? Causation? Correlation? Shopping on Sunday instead of going to church and having a family day?
 
When has the world ever been perfectly fair? Has the historically-unfair world created the necessity that inspired invention and get up and get after it? Are we at this point in civilization because things were fair or because things were unfair?
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Private Equity Faces a New Challenge
March 5, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: AI Knows Nothing About Investing
February 26, 2021
 
 


  •  
    • LEAVE YOUR COMMENT BELOW
    • Name:
    • Email:
    • URL:
    • Comments:
    •