The Leyendecker View: Visualizing 150 Years of US Labor«Back


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The Leyendecker View: January 22, 2021


The fact is, being ordinary is very important to me…It’s really quite rational, my ordinariness. It is actually my answer to the question, ‘What is the best way to be?’ I think ordinary.
Paul McCartney

 
SOMETHING NEW…FOR YOUR MEMORY
 
According to my calculation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, in January of 1980 we had 2.64 service-providing jobs for every goods-producing job. In 1990, we had 3.61 service-providing jobs for every goods-producing job. And just prior to the pandemic lockdowns, we had 6.16 service-providing jobs for every goods-producing job. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in 1980 total public debt as a percent of GDP equaled about 31%. Today, total public debt as a percent of GDP is about 125% and growing rapidly. The US now has a debt level that rivals that of Italy’s. 
 
So, how is the transition from a goods-producing to a service-providing economy working out in this country? Goodie good? Whatcha think?

GOOD READER INPUT
 
An astute reader, Mark Wargo, lobbed over a question: “What were the jobs ratios when the US last balanced its budget?” 
 
The federal budget was last balanced or in surplus in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001. The ratio of service-providing to goods-producing jobs during those years was 4.18, 4.28, 4.35 and 4.53.  For those old enough to remember, during this period of time pretty much every PC and cell phone was manufactured in the US…and a whole lot of other stuff was manufactured here, too. How about we have a goal of moving the current ratio of 6.16 service-providing workers for every goods-producing worker down to 4.3 or even 4.5? Baby steps. Or would this lead to the destruction of Starbucks?
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Janet Yellen is in charge
Of rebuilding the US economy.
 
The boiling frog situation
With property taxes.
 
California at the breaking point
Biden to the rescue.
 
LABOR VIEW
 
Visualizing 150 years of US labor
Nice chart! See all that services growth…
 
9 trends that will shape future work
According to Harvard Business Review.
 
Labor market recovery is fading
Goods producing is good, service providing not. 
 
REBUILDING AMERCIA
 
US-China trade deal anniversary
Anyone surprised China hasn’t complied?

The C-Suite Challenge 2021
The Conference Board’s latest survey.
 
Understanding our national balance sheet
Good infographic that follows the money.
 
MEANWHILE IN EUROPE
 
Auto sales drop most on record
EU economy may need more stimulus.
 
EU wants Euro to replace the dollar
As the global trade currency.
 
New COVID strain straining the UK
Possible lock downs into the summer.
 
THE GLOBE
         
The “world’s strongest weapon”
Trump leaves, North Korean aggression returns.
 
China returns to pre-pandemic growth
With a new strain circulating, is it too soon to celebrate?
 
The rivers full of plastic
That fill up the oceans.
 
THE FINANCE WORLD
 
Banks need borrowers
There’s not enough loan demand.
 
The VC pivot
Some interesting pandemic-inspired investments.
 
Wells Fargo looks to sell asset management
Probably to PE investors.
 
CORONANEWS
 
Anxiety & depression spike
Pandemic has people stressed!
 
CDC vaccination tracker
For those who want to know.
 
One-quarter of NYers don’t want vaccine
Herd immunity may be hard to achieve.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
The Bitcoin dream is dead
It’s not a cryptocurrency, it’s a cryptoasset.
 
The chip shortage
Is hitting automakers most.
 
EU court says go after Facebook
Allows individual countries to sue.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
Batteries are the new oil
Electric charges in 5 minutes are on the way.
 
Large US banks can’t deny funding to oil & gas
So suggests Office of the Comptroller of Currency.
 
EIA expects renewables boom in 2021
Will be top electricity generation development.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
China points finger at Brazil
Claiming COVID was there first.
 
Japan Navy beefing up big
More coast guard needed, too
An island nation’s safety strategy.
 
China NOT happy
With US opening Taiwan diplomatic lines.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
They can’t leave the Bay Area fast enough
And too many are moving to Austin.
U-Haul tells us where folks are going
 
What’s after legalized pot?
Well…of course.  
 
More regulation
Coming to an industry near you.
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
How to be lucky
Who doesn’t want more luck?
 
100 tips for a better life
Some goodies in here.
 
Why we need to dream
And aspire to climb dream ladders.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
“City of the future”
Is on the drawing boards.
 
Rent someone to do nothing
Tokyo dude is making money in a funny way.
 
Ranking US presidents for clemency
And the winners are…
 
MINDCATION VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
LOKI trailer
WandaVision trailer
For all you Marvel fans.
 
Olivia Rodrigo’s “Drivers License”
What the teenagers are listening to and watching.
 
Kidnapper ants
Wow! I mean…WOW!
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
It’s still winter…more comfort food please!
 
Classic Minestrone soup
 
Fancy chef’s homemade mac ‘n’ cheese
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
The larger and more complex any system gets, the more systemic risk builds. We passed Keep It Simple Stupid a couple decades ago.  
 
Blaming any government for its COVID policy is a naïve response to this challenge. Who among us makes perfect decisions with something we’ve never done before?
 
What do you miss doing the most since the COVID restrictions started? 
 
Where was all the inauguration violence the media told us to worry about?
 
When a goods-producing job is eliminated, the replacement service-providing job pays less money. How’s that helping out people and the economy?
 
From friend Matthew Kirst: “I’m surprised by the lack of outrage over China. Aren’t you?” Yes. But the globalists, technologists and bureaucrats don’t seem too bothered. It’s not in their self-interest.
 
Anyone who thinks government has all the answers must not have paid attention in history class.
 
What's going to happen to the stock market if we don't see V-shaped consumer spending the second half of 2021? And what will happen to the price of oil?
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: PE Grabs the Cash
January 15, 2021
 
The Leyendecker View: China Has a $15T Problem
January 8, 2021
 


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