The Leyendecker View: Big Banks Are Killing It«Back


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The Leyendecker View: October 16, 2020


Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.
Oscar Wilde, whose birthday is today

 
COMMIT THIS TO MEMORY

2019 GDP was $21.4T. That makes the 70%-service economy worth $14.98T and the 30%-goods-producing economy worth $6.42T. Service employment is at 130M jobs, and goods production employment is at 21M jobs. That means each service job generates $115K of GDP, while each goods production job generates $304K of GDP. So, what should our economic policy be?

OUR FINANCE WORLD
 
The big banks are killing it
Main Street struggles while Wall Street booms.

Nikola short seller has new target
Another “smoke and mirrors” company?

Italy sells zero interest rate bonds
And they were oversubscribed.
 
The facts and nothing but the facts
The Justice Department’s press release on Robert T. Smith.
 
CORONANEWS
 
WHO says trying to reach herd immunity is unethical
Great to have a guaranteed government job, eh?
 
China’s Golden Week just ended
Lots of vacationers, let’s now watch the infection data.
 
The Great Barrington Declaration
Epidemiologists recommend a Focused Protection approach.
 
ACROSS THE POND
 
Record Scottish support for independence
Can an independent Scotland survive economically?
 
Europe takes the lead in COVID case growth
‘Cause they managed it better than the US, right?
 
Fishing rights a big BREXIT deal
Who really owns UK fishing rights?
 
GLOBAL
 
Japan to release contaminated Fukushima water
Fisherman are concerned.
 
You can’t serve both God and money
Vatican financial scandal takes new twist.
 
2021 World Economic Summit gets new address
Davos being pushed out and to new location.
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Pandemic to cost America $16 trillion
According to two very top economists.
 
IMF revises GDP growth forecast higher
But warns economy still prone to setbacks.
 
San Francisco rents crater by 30%
As renters flock to suburbia
The urbanization trend may have reversed.
 
REBUILDING AMERICA
 
The state and local bailout/stimulus debate
Replace lost revenue, or throw in more for good measure?
 
Why states need some stimulus
Lower tax collections everywhere, higher costs of COVID.
 
What’s destroyed California’s forests?
An overly zealous desire to protect them.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
Pandemic shifts energy growth to renewables
O&G wishes it also had government subsidies.
 
Solar is new “king of electricity”
Renewables to overtake coal by 2025.
 
JP Morgan adopts Paris Accord
Less money for hydrocarbons.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
Foxconn wants in on electric car market
Outsourced assembly from phones to car.
 
Instagram moves towards transparency
Influencers must reveal when paid to shill.
 
Want a better quality of life?
It might come with a pay cut.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
Xi about to gain even more power
The noose is tightening in China.
 
Japan expands “China exit” subsidies
To push more supply chains to SE Asian countries.
 
Taiwan spends $900MM
Just to deal with Chinese air force incursions.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
A notorious liberal news weekly turns conservative
Is conservative the new “alternative” consciousness?
 
Young Americans drinking less
It’s the new Generation Dry.
 
Sports viewing collapses
People at home more but watching less sports???
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
It may be time for some forest bathing
A healing antidote to all the screen time.
 
Why conscious breathing reduces stress
Good enough for HBR, probably good enough for you.
 
Psychological tricks that make you buy more
Sellers are invading your mind.
 
VIDEOS OF THE WEEK
 
Rock and Grohl
A 10-year old girl’s latest “volley” to rocker Dave Grohl.
 
UNNUR
Go to Iceland for a total mindcation.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
More on those new mummies in Egypt
Including video of first opening after 2,500 years.
 
This Halloween’s most popular costumes
According to Google searches.
 
PBR presents a THC seltzer
Are you “Canna-Curious”?
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
                    
World famous lasagna
That you can make at home.
 
Salad dressing infographic
Who knew home-made was this easy?
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
Here comes “flu” season! Fasten your coronavirus seatbelts!
 
In the oil and gas business these days, there is too much of everything…but cash.  
 
Will the pandemic turn more people conservative? When so many people are being hit in their pocketbook, will they start to think more conservatively about both their finances as well as their political and social views? 
 
Last Monday was Columbus Day, which some have begun calling Indigenous Peoples’ Day. I can certainly understand the idea of having a day to celebrate the country’s original inhabitants, but why do it on Columbus Day? Why not celebrate Columbus Day for the European discovery of America and let our original inhabitants pick their own day and way to celebrate? Is it not odd that the “conquerors” get to pick the day the “defeated” are supposed to celebrate?
 
Spring 2022. That’s when I think we’ll have a better feel for our COVID-19 health situation. First, we need a vaccine. Then people have to get vaccinated. How can that happen prior to the summer of 2021? Then we need to go through the winter of 2021-2022 to see how the vaccination worked. After that winter, we may be able to say with some confidence, “This is our path forward.”
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: PE-led SPACs Worry LPs
October 9, 2020
 
The Leyendecker View: The Exploding Venture Capital Problem
October 2, 2020
 
 


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