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The Leyendecker View: July 3, 2020


Where liberty dwells, there is my country.”
Benjamin Franklin
 
ENJOY YOUR 4th OF JULY
 
The USA actually declared independence on July 2nd.
July 4th is when the official “Declaration of Independence” was published in newspapers.
The country’s population at the time was estimated to be 2.5 million people.
There is something written on the back of the Declaration of Independence.
But it’s not a treasure map written in invisible ink…we think.
Jefferson wrote the Declaration on a writing desk that at the time was called a “laptop.”
Fireworks are an American tradition dating back to 1777.
Both Thomas Jefferson (82) and John Adams (90) died on July 4th, 1826.
July 4th was not declared a national holiday until 1870.
Americans eat about 150 million hot dogs over the 4th holiday.
What some non-Americans say they like about the good ole US of A.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
 
The best crisis ever
For the “king of distress.”
 
No hurdle rates needed at hot fund managers
Hmmm…canary in the coal mine for PE?
 
Paulson calls it quits
Hedge fund star stops investing for others.
 
PE has failed to outperform stocks
Suggests Oxford professor.
 
BANKING
 
Flying blind into a credit storm
Banks have no idea who is creditworthy.
 
Fed puts the brakes on banks
No buying back stock, caps dividends.
 
But then opens them up
To more venture investing.
 
CORONAVIRUS
 
New swine flu strain making its way through China.
Hold on to your hats…err…masks.
 
$6,408 for a COVID test
We gotta fix our health care system.
 
The worst is yet to come
Says WHO chief.
 
The IATA travel map
See what’s happening around the world.
 
THE GLOBAL VIEW
 
400 million jobs lost globally so far this year
Plus, three potential scenarios for the rest of 2020.

There are still bad guys out there
In case we had forgotten.
 
Stealing from the poor to give to the rich
Hungary PM’s description of the proposed EU recovery fund.
 
The UK not looking for Brexit extension
More economic chaos coming?
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Choosing the right path to unlock economy
Good insights from McKinsey on our circumstances.
 
Economy faces new challenges from virus
So suggests Fed Chairman.
 
Which small businesses are most vulnerable to COVID?
Knowing this should guide policy.
 
The luxury economy gets hammered
Will it come back to the old normal?
 
REBUILDING AMERICA
 
US Treasury takes stake in public company
Lends $700MM to $70MM market cap trucker, YRC.
 
Made in the USA
Insights from an entrepreneur who has done it.
 
Vintage shops are thriving
While traditional retail declines.
 
The case against infrastructure stimulus
The historical economic savior may not be as stimulating today.
 
THE WAR ON CARBON
 
Saudis threaten new oil-price war
Trying to regain the leadership role.
 
An environmentalist apologizes
Claiming climate change is a fraud.
 
Renewable energy spending to top oil and gas
For the first time next year.
 
California will use diesel power to keep the lights on
Huh? Yep. You read that right.
 
TECHNOLOGY
         
Antitrust activity is set to grow
Are they being anticompetitive?

San Francisco sues DoorDash
Battle continues in an attempt to support labor.
 
The future of remote work
Some surprises in an economist’s study.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
India bans TikTok and other China apps
Threatening the sovereignty and integrity of India.
 
US plans to train fighter pilots in Guam
For Australia, India and Japan.
 
China commits $1.4T to tech race
Big commitment to be on top of global technology.
 
India presents financial incentives for investment
Take it out of China, move it here!
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Profit sharing deserves a comeback
Employees need to be rewarded more.
 
National apartment rents
Check what’s happening in your market.
 
Here comes the ghost kitchen explosion
No need for tables when people want their goodies at home.
 
MAKING A BETTER YOU
 
Do nothing for 2 minutes
Really, just try it.
 
Walk to think
They have a good deal in common.
 
Doomscrolling is slowly eroding your mental health
Stay away from the “news”!
 
VIDEO OF THE WEEK
 
Fishing and grilling in Laguna Madre
Baby, oh baby!
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
Words of wisdom
From the I heart NY designer, who recently passed at 91.
 
The places we will go
39 travel writers pick their post-COVID destination.
 
Zoo penguins getting lonely
So why not take them to an art museum?
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
                    
Perfect grilled chicken thighs
Serve with grilled peaches and white sangria. Yummy!
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
The needs economy is going to remain steady or better, while the wants economy may be on a long decline.
 
I heard there are $2.3T of commercial real estate loans on bank balance sheets. Just sayin’.
 
Other than people in the technology industry, it would seem most everyone else is going to take a pay cut.
 
Be on the lookout for the K economic recovery. The haves are growing their wealth while the have nots are losing more ground.
 
Social media is no longer warm and fuzzy fun.
 
Lockdowns. Clumsy online classes. Uncertain grading processes. Disenfranchised students. Outrageous costs. Get ready for a higher education crisis.
 
The surge in bankruptcies is just beginning.
 
You think unemployment claims are going to rise now that most of PPP has been paid out?
 
Seemingly similar to today, the late 1960s and early 1970s were a period of great social unrest and violence. I wonder what it was that calmed things down back then?
 
Both economic expansions and contractions have a tendency to feed off themselves. Fiscal and monetary stimulus exists to prevent contractions from getting out of hand. But for every force of nature, as well as that of man, there is the law of diminishing returns. Or worse, a point of maximum entropy where the whole ecosystem stops working. 
 
Surely there are multiple influences on climate. So why is it broadly accepted that hydrocarbons are the only climate change influence? How can that be? Where are all the studies that conclude none of the other influences are driving a change in climate?
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: IRS Sends $1.4B to Dead People
June 26, 2020
 
The Leyendecker View: Is ESG a Marketing Ploy?
June 19, 2020
 


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