The Leyendecker View: Navigating Deglobalization«Back



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The Leyendecker View: May 15, 2020


“The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge 
faster than society gathers wisdom.”
- Isaac Asimov
 

SOME GOOD NEWS

Chef Guy Fieri to battle it out with Bill Murray
In a live nacho-making contest for charity.
 
Elders around the world surviving Covid
Some of their stories.

Kroger buying milk from dairies
And sending it to food banks.
 
OUR FINANCE WORLD
 
Making big bets while most investors wait and see
Silver Lake’s go-for-it strategy.
 
Material adverse change clause
Allowing investors to walk away from deals not yet closed.
 
Bain Capital restaurant company files for bankruptcy
Restaurants, retail, energy and more challenges ahead for PE investors.
 
Government pensions endure worst investment quarter
Benefit cutbacks likely coming.
 
CORONAVIRUS
 
Could take 5 years to get pandemic under control
So suggests WHO.
 
Gallup surveys Americans
What they think about resuming “normal” activities.
 
The conspiracy theories
That are getting millions of views on YouTube.
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Economic shock hits lower-income households hardest
Political panic punches them in the gut.
 
PWC surveys CFOs
About rebooting business.
 
Global stimulus packages
What countries are throwing at their economies.
 
REBUILDING AMERICA
 
Taiwan firm to build chip factory in US
$12B to be invested in Arizona.
 
This can’t be good
US has highest share of single parents in the world.
 
Mortgages harder to get
As banks ratchet up lending standards.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
Wuhan’s other export
It’s a big supplier of fentanyl, the deadly synthetic opioid.
 
Communist Party encouraging xenophobia
Using defense to play offense with their citizens.
 
Chinese hackers trying to steal US Covid-19 vaccine research
So says FBI and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Navigating deglobalization
It’s coming, so how do we minimize the disruption?
 
Consumer companies must adapt
To the new “living small” trend.
 
Doomsday bunker business is booming
Home sweet home is underground.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
Hummingbird hatches some babies
Watch them grow to first flight.
 
The best whiskeys in every state
Is bourbon the new wine?
 
Jeff Bezos projected to be first individual trillionaire
I wonder which countries he’ll buy?
 
The world according to Tommy Chong
“I’m at the finish line. I’ve done it. I’ve done everything I wanted to do.”
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
Making the holy grail of bourbon
Copy Pappy Van Winkle in your own home.
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
 
An emerging markets crisis is on the horizon. Subsiding global trade puts fewer dollars in emerging market hands, and yet they are full of debt that needs to be repaid.
 
Government and central banks are coming to the rescue with trillions in support for lost business, but will the next normal be able to support itself without the need for more and more stimulus?
 
The current crisis shows the weakness and fragility of a consumption- and services-based economy.
 
Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you wanted or expected. We all are getting lots of experience today.
 
No one is taking the word “cycle” out of the dictionary anytime soon.
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: The Restart
May 8, 2020
 
The Leyendecker View: Radical Ideas From a Hedge Fund Manager
May 1, 2020
 
 

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