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The Leyendecker View: May 8, 2020


“I cannot judge what he did because I did not have his information.”
- Lee Kuan Yew, former Prime Minister of Singapore
 

SOME GOOD NEWS

Spinning the globe the wrong way
John Krasinski gets schooled, plus grad speakers the SGN way.
 
Man assembles his own antibody test
And beats Big Science to the punch.

Pakistan gives virus-idled workers something to do
Like planting 10 billion trees. 
 
Lowes donates $1MM in flowers to senior homes
Creating a little Mother’s Day joy.
 
OUR FINANCE WORLD
 
Private equity poised for challenges
Is the gilded age over?
 
Leadership to get to the other side
A crisis requires a different kind of leadership.
 
Sell in May and go away
The old adage may no longer hold.
 
TECHNOLOGY
 
US broadband policy works well for lockdown
While Europe’s policy has limited broadband usage.
 
Adam Neumann sues Softbank
How long before WeWork goes bankrupt?
 
Robinhood raises $280MM at $8.3B valuation
For a broker that charges no fees?
 
Uber squeezes scooter company, Lime
Is the scooter craze over?
 
CORONAVIRUS
 
The restart
McKinsey’s 8 steps for CEOs to relaunch—safely and successfully.
 
What you need to know about the vaccine
According to Bill Gates.
 
America’s Covid-19 recovery tax
Covid-related lawsuits are proliferating.
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Coronavirus is outlasting private sector stimulus
And Congress isn’t in the mood for more right now.
 
Pandemic triggers a wave of distress
What’s the wave of bankruptcies going to look like?
 
New global surveys of consumer sentiment
McKinsey breaks it down by country.
 
1706
The last time the UK economy shrank more than this year’s estimate.
 
REBUILDING AMERICA
 
House close on next stimulus package
This time, for state and local governments.
 
Covid-19’s effect on jobs and small businesses
PPP may not provide enough support.
 
Boeing saved without spending a penny
When the Fed backstopped credit markets, Boeing raised $25B.
 
THE CHINA SYNDROME
 
A plan to depend less on China
Coordination from US, Australia, Japan and India.
 
Japan sets aside funds to shift production out of China
Has globalization reached the point of diminishing returns?
 
Chinese firms accelerate efforts to “de-Americanise”
Why not, haven’t they already helped themselves to our IP?
 
China’s loss could be India’s gain
India pitches over 1,000 US companies to leave China.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Working from home makes a lot of people so happy
Some would be willing to take a pay cut to keep doing it.
 
A coming Depression?
Suggests well-respected economist, Nouriel Robini.
 
Or, “American Magic”?
Suggests Warren Buffett.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
The nightcap cocktail
A little history and some suggestions.
 
The proper balance between competitiveness and equality
From the leader who turned a third world into a developed world.
 
The man who thought too fast
A philosopher, economist and mathematician who lived way before his time.
 
YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP
 
Guy drinks wine from a moving tanker truck
Who came up with this idea?
 
5-year-old steals mom’s car
Cuz she refused to buy him a Lamborghini.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
Cooking the perfect steak
Want to get hungry…like right now!
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG:
 
If today’s technologies are so wonderful, why have the income and wealth gaps continued to widen?
 
If today’s technologies are so wonderful, why does GDP struggle to grow beyond 2% a year? 
 
We’re in an age of technological wonder that’s not been so wonderful to developed economies.
 
When will we see the first tax increase, and which group will be targeted?  
 
Taxes may soon go up. But with unemployment exploding, are wages headed down?
 
When considering the future decoupling with China, we might need to remember the old saying:  hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.
 
How much you wanna bet that, after the PPP program ends, more people will get laid off?
 
Look at GDP contraction and you'll see the difference between the needs economy and the wants economy. The wants economy is getting hammered.
 
Inflation will likely surface because supply chain decoupling leads to higher output costs and/or lower overall output.
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Radical Ideas From a Hedge Fund Manager
May 1, 2020
 
The Leyendecker View: A Remarkable Leap Forward
April 24, 2020
 
 

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