The Leyendecker View: A Remarkable Leap Forward«Back



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The Leyendecker View: April 24, 2020


“Ignorance more often begets confidence than knowledge.”
- Charles Darwin
 

SOME GOOD NEWS

A remarkable leap forward
It took only a few months to develop a point-of-care rapid test for Covid-19.
 
99-year-old veteran raises $30MMish for UK’s National Health Service
By walking laps in his garden. You go, bro!

People are looking for more and more good news
Here’s where to get you some.
 
OUR FINANCE WORLD
 
Private equity squeezed out again
From new PPP tranche.
 
Details on the coming public pension crisis
CalPERS was only 70% funded last June!
 
CFOs looking to preserve cash
No surprise here.
 
WHEN TO OPEN THE ECONOMY
 
8 reasons to end the lockdown
The authors are 5 MDs and a nurse practitioner.
 
China opens then closes down fitness gyms
A return to normal is going to be rocky.
 
Americans’ view on returning to normal activities
Wait and see…wait and see.
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Up to one-third of US jobs may be vulnerable
And more than 80% are held by low-income workers.
 
$8 trillion global stimulus not enough, and extra PPP funds also not enough
We need more water (money) to put out this fire.
 
Passenger car sales plummet
Who needs a new car when delivery services bring you everything?
 
REBUILDING AMERICA
 
It’s time to build
Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen channels MAGA.
 
US-China economic decoupling probably in the cards
How did we get sucked in so easily?
 
Trump rewrites the book on emergencies
Deregulation and decentralization on display.
 
GLOBALIZATION
 
End of the world economy as we know it
Might not be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
 
Japan subsidizing production move out of China
A new global supply chain is coming to a country near you.
 
Countries start protecting their domestic companies
Gotta save the family farm.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Big cities losing their luster
Even before this crisis started.
 
More cooking, less shampooing
Consumption in the next normal?

National interests grow
After being let down by the mega-institutions and globalization.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
How to choose the perfect steak
Grilling season is here!
 
Alcohol of choice
What the longest-living people in the world drink.
 
8 truths about intuition
What to know about what you don’t know you know.
 
FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN
 
Roasted asparagus, prosciutto and poached egg
Yum yum yum. Pair with a nice warm baguette.
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG:
 
Lenders and private equity investors today must feel like Army medics on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day. All they can focus on is the next patient whose life needs to be saved.
 
Sales of toilet paper are the leading panic indicator. Let’s check the mood after their sales start falling.
 
The great majority of people losing their jobs earn below average wages. What does that tell us about the jobs our economic policy is creating?
 
Taxes are going to go up. How else are we going to pay for all the support and stimulus packages? 
 
This crisis seems similar to Pearl Harbor or Hiroshima. This time, though, a bomb was dropped on the whole world, not just on one city. 
 
Oh…and the economic bombs are still falling.
 
Volatility naturally lowers valuation. Three stock market collapses in less than 20 years prove we’re in volatile times. Many investments will likely be repriced lower. Just ask the domestic energy investors about their experience.
 
Which sectors of the economy have too much capacity if living small becomes popular? Which sectors will benefit?
 
We need a real stimulus plan out of Washington. Everything so far has been to cushion the blow from closure.  
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Investment Banking Consolidation Coming?
April 17, 2020
 
The Leyendecker View: East Coast Media Backs Trump??
April 10, 2020

 

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