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The Leyendecker View: April 10, 2020

“Free markets are an aspiration during economic expansions but of no interest in a contraction. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But if it’s broke, fix it IMMEDIATELY!”
- Doug Leyendecker


SOME GOOD NEWS

Faster Internet on the way
Thanks to Trump’s FCC Chairman, Ajit Pai.
 
Carbon emissions may fall over 5%
Staying home is an easy peasy fix to climate change, eh?

When will the honeymoon end?
Tough being “stuck” in a resort in the Maldives.
 
SGN, episode 2
John Krasinski is back, this time with the cast of Hamilton.
 
A VIEW FROM OUR SERVICE MARKETS
 
Activist investor knocking the cover off
Quickly turning a $27MM investment into a $2.6B profit.
 
CFOs opine on rebuilding supply chains
Not as optimistic as the stock market.
 
Private equity’s new “war rooms”
It’s triage time for portfolio companies.
 
Negative interest rates
And how they could turn the world of banking upside down.
 
THE CAREER VIEW
 
Disaster lurks in almost all industries
Save for one.
 
CFOs look to up automation investments amid pandemic
So, how many more jobs are going to be destroyed?
 
Don’t expect top productivity from at-home workers these days
Distractions abound!
 
3 tips to avoid WFH burnout
How to leave work at the office when the office is your home.
 
THE CORONAVIRUS
 
Bill Gates-backed COVID-19 vaccine begins human trials
But any vaccine is going to take next winter’s flu season to prove up.
 
Technology killed local news
But now we need it.
 
The 8 different people we become using Zoom
Which one are you?
 
China study suggests having virus doesn’t mean immunity
A new wrinkle for recovery?
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Maybe Trump was right about China
A perspective from the East Coast mainstream media. 
 
ECB unleashes the big “bazooka"
Fiscal discipline is so overrated. Take note folks, adjust accordingly.
 
The Fed also unleashes a big “bazooka”
It’s going to rain money for a while.
 
Global debt explosion
Now 40% above 2008, and we’re just getting started.
 
THE NEXT NORMAL
 
Considering post-crisis consumer behavior
From the South China Morning Post.
 
Young adults burdened with debt
The next depression-era values are starting.
 
Who’s going to buy all those Baby Boomer homes?
Maybe if they’re cheap.
 
Big Brother is coming and will be here to stay
Everyone will need a health app for government to monitor.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
Ten virtual distillery tours
For that after-work time…When does that start?
 
Meet the Xenobot
We’ve been too distracted to notice a major technological innovation.
 
Productivity isn’t everything
Learn to be a slacker.
 
Wake up like an animal
Your morning stretch routine.
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG:
 
2019 is long in the rearview mirror.
 
On December 31, 2019,the government in Wuhan announced they had a problem. 
January 1, 2020—welcome to the future.  
 
Who knows the difference between economic needs and wants?
 
You can’t replace current supply chains over night, but that change is coming.
 
This may actually be the beginning of MAGA.
 
All bear markets have a dead cat bounce.
 
Volatility lowers valuation.
 
Corporate buy backs will be gone for some time to come, so companies will have to really earn their EPS.
 
Living small could be the next personal value. Mom’s meatloaf recipe is pretty good!
 
Will this crisis bring the world closer together or push us further apart? History suggests it will push us further apart. Saving the “family farm” becomes the top priority.
 
Incessant climate change preaching created fertile ground for this crisis to take hold. Humans were ripe for an end-of-the-world narrative.
 
So, it wasn’t climate change that destroyed us after all. 
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: Four Timelines to the Next Normal
April 3, 2020
 
The Leyendecker View: This Too Shall Pass
March 26, 2020
 
 


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