The Leyendecker View: Four Timelines to the Next Normal«Back

 

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The Leyendecker View: April 3, 2020

The larger and more complex any system gets, the more systemic risk builds.” 
- Doug Leyendecker


SOME GOOD NEWS

Possible smartphone COVID-19 test
Houston-based company claims it’s created one.
 
J&J could have vaccine approved by early 2021
Hope we’re not locked down until then.

Return of the milkman
And all manner of other things delivered to your door.
 
End may be near for plastic crisis
Germans found a way to break down polyurethane.
 
THE CORONAVIRUS
 
Tracking the virus
Get the best data here.
 
Four possible timelines to normal
Whatever the “normal” will be.
 
China factories up and running
But slumping foreign demand is threatening.
 
China shoppers can go out again
Online sales suggest they aren’t ready to do so.
 
THE VIEW FROM OUR SERVICE MARKETS
 
PE write downs are coming
How bad will it get?
 
Start-ups are getting pummeled
In the great unwinding.
 
CFO’s role in crisis management
Data is crucial to productive decision making.
 
Buy the dips, and sell the rips
High-frequency traders are cleaning up.
 
The bond fund conundrum
QE kills traditional valuation models.
 
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
 
Sovereign debt crisis coming to emerging markets
Debt forbearance is coming.
 
US consumer confidence craters
Can we bottom out in April?
 
Is a debt jubilee right around the corner?
Anything seems possible in today’s world.
 
Endowments and university operating budgets pinched
More bailout please.
 
HOW ABOUT A BREAK
 
Finally, the “Some Good News” network
Courtesy of John Krasinksi.
 
Helplessly Hoping
Lovely Crosby, Stills & Nash performance by young Italians.
 
Quitting caffeine will help you sleep
But maybe you sleep all day.
 
The cat tracker project
What do cats do outside?
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG:
 
This too shall pass. What we end up with after is unknown.
 
$2 trillion is not stimulus, it’s support for lost GDP.  
 
Trillions more in real stimulus are surely on their way.
 
When will all the economic aftershocks stop? Where are they?
 
Hotels and retail real estate headed for big problems. How about our house values?
 
A vaccine is apparently on its way in 2021, but what about the rest of this year?
 
I guess we don’t care about exploding debt and an exploding Fed balance sheet. So why do we need to work? Can’t they just keep sending us money from the printing press?
 
We’re all socialists now!
 
Does anyone enjoy living small, or do we really miss the fancy restaurant experience, luxury this and that, and all the traffic?
 
In an economic contraction, debt is like having a garage full of gasoline with the fire burning down your next-door neighbor’s house.
 
A debt jubilee feels like a certainty.
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
The Leyendecker View: This Too Shall Pass
March 26, 2020
 
What the World Needs Now…is Some Levity
March 13, 2020

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