The Leyendecker View: This Too Shall Pass«Back


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The Leyendecker View: March 26, 2020

No one is taking the word ‘cycle’ out of the dictionary any time soon.” 
- Doug Leyendecker

THE VIEW FROM OUR SERVICE MARKETS
 
The Wall Street Crash of 1929
If you find yourself wanting to learn about it.
 
The corporate credit market is chock full of default risk
The Fed is going to save investment grade debt, but there’s a whole lot more out there.
 
Rethinking investment risk
In a riskier world.       
 
Dealing with negative interest rates   
What banks can do as interest margins fall.
                                     
Private equity and the Coronavirus
Bargains galore, maybe, but can’t forget the portfolio challenges.
 
When the walls come crumbling down
Hedge fund manager’s strategy for the next crash…that’s here today.
 
Your Coronavirus business prescription
From investors experienced with the Black Swan.
 
Building resilient operations
McKinsey wisdom.
 
THE BROADER & DEEPER VIEW
 
That discomfort you're feeling is grief
HBR sits down with David Kessler to discuss our collective Coronavirus grief.

WHO launches mega-trial of four promising therapies
Keep your fingers crossed.
 
Coronavirus will change the world
From various thought leaders.
 
The Coronavirus fatality rate is likely way way too high
Maybe we should have done better math earlier.
 
Already strapped states and municipalities will be losing a lot of revenue
Expect they will be in bailout 2.0.
 
Make better decisions by slowing down
Too much busy-ness leads to poor decisions.
 
When to trust your gut
A life skill we all need.
 
Take a walk
Put away your devices for a full life experience.
 
THE FUN VIEW
 
The best coffee you can buy online
Because we’re all our own baristas right now.
 
Freud versus Jung
Feuding over the meaning of sex.
 
Kid jokes for when you’re stuck at home
Because we all could use an easy smile.
 
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

This too shall pass. What we end up with after is unknown.
 
The theory is that if a country takes productive action like China, the life cycle of this virus is around 90 days. That means that by Q3, many things will be back to “normal.” But doesn’t every earthquake come with aftershocks?
 
How quickly can we produce a vaccine? Does corona 2.0 show up in the fall?
 
It doesn’t matter if we think this whole government and media crisis is pointless, it’s obviously past the point of no return. Gotta deal with what we gotta deal with.
 
An important question going forward is whether consumers will return to their buy-and-borrow lives, or if “living small” and saving will become the new fad. Is the luxury economy over?
 
Most Baby Boomers will certainly have to work a lot longer and/or live a lot smaller.
 
How will investors act after living through three stock market crashes in the last 20 years? Furthermore, what should three stock market crashes in 20 years tell us?
 
After the ten-year bull market (2009-19), pension funds remained under-funded. Now what?
 
The Fed has dropped interest rates, but the cost of capital for most companies is going up.
 
Stocks drop between 30% and 50% in a recession. How much further to 50%?
 
When people are scared, cash is king. Cash is always king.
 
China is going to pay one way or another. 
 
The ebb from globalization that started with Trump and Brexit is probably going to gain yet more momentum. Saving the “family farm” might now jump to the top priority.
 
Who is going to start a “Made in America” private equity fund? Maybe me. Takers?
 
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
 
What the World Needs Now…is Some Levity
March 13, 2020
 
The Leyendecker View: How Private Equity Became a Beta Play
February 28, 2020
 
 
 

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