The Leyendecker View Blog
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» The Leyendecker View: Let It Run Wild
- January
- 14
- 2022
The Leyendecker View: January 14, 2022
Be true to yourself and useful to the journey.
- Sidney Poitier
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
There is for sure one force that could slow down or put an end to inflation. It’s called a recession.
When’s the last time you saw prices decline in restaurants? We can probably count on any inflation-driven price increases to be sticky.
I saw a news story about Apple working on their “extended reality” products. Exactly what is “extended reality”? Is it real reality?
Because of omicron, the economy is starting to slow down. And now the Fed is supposed to tighten monetary policy?
A good friend’s GREAT idea: The US government should provide political and economic support to the EU by facilitating the building of more LNG offtake terminals in Europe, particularly in Germany. This would significantly reduce Putin’s political and economic leverage over Europe. Which of you readers can get this idea to the Biden administration?
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» The Leyendecker View: Inflation, Inflation, Inflation
- January
- 07
- 2022
The Leyendecker View: January 7, 2022
If science can’t be questioned, it’s not science anymore.
It’s propaganda.
- Aaron Rodgers
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Looks like this could be the year when the true cost of climate change “action” hits everyone over the head like a piano falling from a fourth-story window.
For over thirty years, the most influential input of the production economy has been the low wages of developing countries. The process of Western companies exporting labor (as well as their environmental responsibilities) to the developing world became a deflationary force. But if global wage arbitrage is now over, the most influential input on future economic activity is likely going to be the cost of oil, natural gas and power, which are rising and could continue doing so for a while.
If the arbitrage of global labor has reached its economic end, oil, gas, coal and power prices will gain a greater influence over inflation.
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» The Leyendecker View: Risking My Reputation
- December
- 31
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: December 31, 2021
Since we’re starting a New Year, we’re forgoing the usual news and instead exploring some thoughts from Doug about what might be coming in 2022.
Whatever 2022 holds, we hope it brings you great health, prosperity and success.
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» The Leyendecker View: What’s Wrong With This Data?
- December
- 17
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: December 17, 2021
Kindness is like snow. It beautifies everything it covers.
- Kahlil Gibran
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Omicron fear may subside sooner than most of us expect, but many people may be scarred for life from the experience of the last two years. And when another virus emerges?
What are the odds the Fed reverses course as soon as poor GDP numbers show up?
Is Elon Musk selling Tesla stock at the top of their valuation cycle? He ain’t no dummy.
What’s wrong with this data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
Private sector average worker compensation: $37.24
State and local government average worker compensation: $54.46
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» The Leyendecker View: Be a Santa This Season
- December
- 10
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: December 10, 2021
Nature is often beautiful, always wondrous, and rarely kind.
There is no path to self-actualization for a bunny.
- Steve Ramirez
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Starbucks workers in Buffalo just voted to unionize. Did you know that 35% of public sector (government) workers are in unions, but only 6.3% of private sector workers are unionized?
Given its internal economic problems, will China press the accelerator on exports to save the day? If so, this would be naturally deflationary.
Why is Ukraine a US problem? Why doesn’t the EU have the situation under control?
If Russia invades Ukraine, China may quickly invade Taiwan. What better timing than when Western countries are in crisis over a diplomatic problem?
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» The Leyendecker View: Another Big Employment Bust
- December
- 03
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: December 3, 2021
Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state.
They forget that the state lives at the expense of everyone.
- Frédéric Bastiat
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Do virus variants show up for the fun of it, or do variants show up because we created vaccines the virus is trying to work around?
Ultimate insider Elon Musk has sold about $10B of Tesla stock. Normally, this would really spook investors, but Musk is one smart and crafty guy. He can blame his Twitter followers for telling him to sell.
Who is going to pay the trillions it will cost to decommission the hydrocarbon infrastructure if we put the hydrocarbon industry out of business? Wouldn’t abandoned and decaying hydrocarbon infrastructure lead to huge environmental problems?
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» The Leyendecker View: Facebook’s Metaverse Faces Competition
- November
- 26
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: November 26, 2021
It is impossible for a man to learn
what he thinks he already knows.
- Epictetus
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
Only three more days of Thanksgiving weekend. Oh yeah!!! Enjoy!
Are Internet retailers about to go brick-and-mortar?
Will Black Friday sales disappoint this year?
My gal friend had an epiphany a couple days ago. It goes something like this: Since, as a society, we're already such gluttons to give thanks on Thanksgiving, maybe we should fast instead of eating more, more, more? Hmmm....And she's no turkey hugger.
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» The Leyendecker View: The Chip Shortage Silver Lining
- November
- 19
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: November 19, 2021
I am grateful for what I am and have.
My thanksgiving is perpetual.
- Henry David Thoreau
THOUGHTS FROM DOUG
All inflation is transitory. What matters is if it's still around during an election.
Will the Chinese lower prices to ramp up exports and boost their economy as their domestic real estate market slumps? If so, wouldn’t this be disinflationary?
A year from now, most of the supply chain kinks and labor and inflation challenges should be worked out. Could we see an economic boom later next year? Think of how many people today are putting off a car purchase or a home improvement project.
Loads of governments and companies are drafting zero carbon initiatives with goals for 2040, 2050, and 2060. How in the heck do we have any idea what economy will look like 20 or more years from now? If history is any gauge, many of the companies pledging will be out of business before their carbon neutral goals are even met.
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» The Leyendecker View: How America Failed Workers
- November
- 12
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: November 12, 2021
If a man hasn’t discovered something that he will die for, he isn’t fit to live.
- Martin Luther King Jr.
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
Fed Chairman asks for patience
Not easy managing through this economic mess.
As economic confidence and consumer sentiment slides.
US trade deficit hits another record
We keep sending our dollars to other countries.
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» The Leyendecker View: The Great Monetary Unwinding
- November
- 08
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: November 5, 2021
Ideas are cheap. Execution is expensive.
The ability to execute separates people,
not the ability to come up with ideas.
- Shane Parrish
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
Employment reports 500K+ new jobs
Are we back to building economic momentum?
The great monetary unwinding arrives
And the stock market hits another record.
But no groundwork is set for higher rates
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» The Leyendecker View: Bond Market Sales Inflation Will Last
- October
- 29
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: October 29, 2021
America is thirsty to reward grace and virtue.
- Robert Woodson
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
US economy slowed to 2% growth in Q3
Expectations were 2.8%...Delta, Delta, Delta.
Holiday sales projected to break record
So suggests the National Retail Federation.
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» The Leyendecker View: What’s Really Going on in China
- October
- 22
- 2021
The Leyendecker View: October 22, 2021
A dream doesn’t become reality through magic.
It takes sweat, determination and hard work.
- Colin Powell
THE ECONOMIC VIEW
Sept US industrial output drops sharply
Biggest drop since initial 2020 crash.
Mortgage rates may spike 30% higher
So suggests Mortgage Bankers Association.
Yet Zillow expects almost 12% appreciation in 2022
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